Sco Summit 2024: Will Pm Modi Visit Islamabad After Pakistan’s Proposition?

On Thursday, it was announced by Pakistan that an invitation has been extended to India and Prime Minister Narendra Modi too to attend a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)'s Council of Heads of Government, due to be held in October.
While Pakistan is holding the SCO Council of Heads of Government or CHG, it hosts this month the two-day in-person meeting of SCO Heads of Governments. But PM Modi is unlikely to visit Islamabad amidst strained relations between the two nations due to recent terror attacks in the Jammu region.

●    BACKGROUND:
A gathering to establish the SCO happened in Shanghai back in 2001. The leaders of Russia, China, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan showed up for this event. This group stands out as one of the largest and most powerful global organizations around. It serves as a reliable partnership for economic and security matters. India and Pakistan were admitted as permanent members in 2017. Additionally, Iran was given full membership of the organization in July of the last year at a virtual summit led by India. IN 2024, Belarus has become the 10th member state of the SCO.
The leaders of both India and Pakistan can convene for indirect meetings as members of the largest regional organization.
The SCO Summit in India was conducted virtually last year. The Prime Minister of Pakistan, Shehbaz Sharif, joined the meeting via video call. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari India's then-foreign minister Zardari as well as others participated in the summit of the SCO Council of Foreign Ministers which took place in Goa for two days in May of the same year. Zardari was the first Pakistani foreign minister who visited India in close to 12 years.
Mumtaz Zahra Baloch, a spokesperson for the Pakistan Foreign Office, announced that Islamabad has extended invitations to all SCO member nations, with India included. Baloch also mentioned that certain countries have already confirmed their attendance. New Delhi has not confirmed or denied the invitation from Islamabad to the SCO invite.
It should be mentioned that the Prime Minister also did not attend the CHG meeting in Kazakhstan this year due to it coinciding with the July session of parliament. In Bishkek last year, the External Affairs Minister Dr S. Jaishankar participated in the CHG meeting. It is uncertain whether India can participate in the meeting virtually if no representatives are present in Pakistan.

●    Recent India-Pakistan Conflicts:
The reason behind the long-standing tension between Islamabad and New Delhi is the conflict over Kashmir and the fact that cross border terrorism emerging from Pakistan. Pakistan started reducing ties with India after the Indian Parliament eliminated Article 370 on August 5, 2019.  The developments between the two countries were escalated by India’s Constitutional Amendment, revoking the autonomous status given to Jammu and Kashmir. In this connection, Pakistan condemned the action as a breach of international law and usurpation of the U.N. Charter.
Recent terror attacks in the valley of Kashmir may be the other reason. On the 8th of July, five Indian army soldiers were killed and five others were injured on a booby-trapped road by militants through an army convoy in Kathua district. The previous month, at least nine people were killed and 33 others injured by the passenger bus provoked to divert its path into a cliff by militants in Reasi district. According to the official records, 29 terror-related violent incidents have occurred in the Jammu region since 2021, with an increase in civilian casualties. The total number of deaths was 12 in 2023 compared to 17 in the first six months of 2024 in Jammu alone.

●    THE SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANISATION SUMMIT 2024:

The SCO summit in 2024 at Astana in Kazakhstan had regional leaders across the board in attendance. At the front was India, represented by the External Affairs Minister, who conveyed the message of the Prime Minister to the member states: showcasing issues that need to be addressed in fighting terrorism and climate change. There would be some definite highlights and points of interest that would involve India, keeping in view the present involvement and the dynamics within the region, such as:
1. India's Role and Contribution:
⮚    Strategic Partnerships: India will probably reiterate its strategic interests and contributions within the SCO framework. This might take the form of statements on regional stability and security issues, especially relating to the apprehensions on terrorism and cross-border matters.
⮚    It may also come up with some new proposals or support any new economic initiatives taken up by SCO for regional trade, investment opportunities, and infrastructure development. Given the huge economic potential of India, there is every possibility it will be quite active in shaping economic policies.
2. Regional Security and Counter-Terrorism:
⮚    Security Frameworks: Deeper SCO frameworks on regional security threats such as terrorism can be promoted by India. The summit may provide an opportunity to push for more cooperation in the fight against terrorism and other security challenges in the region.
⮚    Border Management: Strategies concerning how to manage and reduce border tensions or disputes may be discussed in light of the experience and uneasiness about its borders with neighbours.
3. Bilateral Relations with Key SCO Members:
⮚    Engagement with China and Russia: The Indian engagement with China and Russia would be in focus. The summit might provide a platform for India to take up issues concerning its uneasy relationship with China, especially on border disputes and spheres of regional influence.
⮚    By doing this, India can use the summit to make its bilateral relationship with other SCO members closer, especially via strategic partnerships and cooperative projects based on mutual interests in security, trade, and regional development.

●    IS THIS WAY OF NAVIGATING RELATIONS BETWEEN INDIA & PAKISTAN?

Significantly, however, SCO is arguably the only multilateral platform where India and Pakistan have been able to manage cooperation despite the hostilities that have plagued the relationship since their abortive attempt to relaunch the dialogue process in 201 and the terror attacks that followed it.
India and Pakistan are both full-time members of the grouping headed by Russia and China. India, however remains cautious regarding the group's anti-west platform. That India has never signed China's Belt and Road Initiative in the SCO joint statement reflects it. Despite all this, SCO remains the only multilateral platform where both India and Pakistan have managed to work together.
When contacted about ties with India, Mumtaz Zahra Baloch said, "Pakistan does not have direct bilateral trade with India.".
The invitation, according to SCO Protocol, to the CHG meeting is yet to be finalized by the Indian Government.

●    FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS:

1.    What is Shanghai Cooperation Organisation ?
The SCO is an intergovernmental regional association formed in 2001 with the aim of strengthening political, economic, and security cooperation among the members. Among the top priorities of SCO, the regional stability along with the fight against terrorism and extremism is effectively attained by the promotion of economic development, cultural exchange, and humanitarian aid. It consists of members like China, Russia, and a few others from Central Asia, with India and Pakistan as the latest entrants into the organization.
2.    When and where will the SCO Summit 2024 take place?
The 24th Meeting of the SCO Council of Heads of States (SCO Summit) is going to be held, under the presidency of Kazakhstan, on the 4th of July 2024 in Astana.
3.    What are the key issues expected to be discussed at the SCO Summit 2024?
Key issues to be dealt with at the SCO Summit 2024:

• Regional Security: The fight against terrorism, extremism, and other threats to security using different methods.
• Economic Cooperation: New projects and initiatives regarding the development of trade between the member states, investments, and industries.
• Geopolitical Developments: The geopolitical situation in the region and the whole world-the events and processes that create complications for SCO member countries.
• Cultural and Humanitarian Issues: Further development of cultural exchange and solving humanitarian problems.
• Expansion and Membership: Discussion of the possibilities and the future way forward of the organization concerning the new potential members and observers.

4.    What role will India play in the SCO Summit 2024?
India, being a full member of SCO, India will be an active participant in discussing policy and initiatives on regional and global levels. India is likely to be involved in the following topics:

• Regional Security: The lion's share of work will be done to propose strict counter-measures against terrorism and dealing with security challenges.
• Economic Initiative: Advocacy for regional economic cooperation and investments.
• Bilateral Relations: Building strong bonds with some significant members, like China and Russia, through bilateral talks.
• Cultural Exchange: Projects and events that promote cultural and educational exchange.

5.    How will the outcomes of the SCO Summit 2024 impact international relations and regional stability?
The aftermath implications of the SCO Summit 2024 would lead to the following developments:

• This will strengthen regional cooperation whereby the resolutions and agreements passed during the summit may give a common understanding among member states, hence boosting regional partnership which may lead to peace and security in the region.
• Economic Development: The rolling out of new projects along with the other economic aspects would affect the growth of trade and investment which will be redeemable of the region attained economic expansion.
• Geopolitical Alignments: The summit has the potential to bring geopolitical alignments in the relationships between nations, as it shapes the decisions of the SCO on specific global issues and how these organizations relate to other similar organizations.
• Diplomatic Relations: The summit has the capacity to influence diplomatic relations between the members of the SCO and other global forces, thus leading to new alliances and adjustments of foreign policy.

REFERENCES:

1. TIMES OF INDIA
2. FIRSTPOST
3. DRISHTI IAS
4. INDIA TODAY
5. THE INDIAN EXPRESS
6. GLOBAL CONFLICT TRACKER