Srilanka : India's Strategic Dilemma

Srilanka : India's Strategic Dilemma— Dr Jyotirmoy Das Chowdhury In its determined bid to project muscle power outside South Asian region, Indian Government has permitted her navy to deploy its force in the Red Sea off the coast of Somalia to protect Indian ships from Somalian pirates. On the other hand. Indian government is in a dilemma either to act in favour of Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) of Sri Lanka or allow the Sri Lankan forces to overrun Kilnochchi, the symbolic capital of the LTTE. For the first time in 25 years of its existence, the world’s mightiest and most ruthless terror outfit seems to be crumbling under Sri Lankan military pressure. The army has recently captured the towns of Uyilankulam and Thunukkai after intense fighting for months. Thunnukkai a garrison town was under the-control of the LTTE, for nearly 25 years. As such, the loss of the control of the town has demoralised the LTTE and opened a new avenue for the Sri Lankan army to occupy their last Boston Kilinochchi. In the war zone of the northern Sri Lanka, LTTE is now facing four fronts. It is countering the 58th division in the West, 57th division in the middle and 59th division to protect Kilinochchi from South and the West. Now questions arise as to how long does a terrorist outfit bear the onslaught of a recognised military machine? There was a time when the LTTE supremo Prabhakaran had established his own administrative system having police, court, judges of the Eelam State. He even built his own navy, army and a small air force of 5 Czech-built Zline-143 aircraft smuggled into their controlled territory and later on reassembled. But, suddenly it appears that LTTE is isolated and no one is in its side to extend support. The origin of the conflict lies in a long and fragmented history of grievances between the majority Sinhala Buddhists (74 per cent) and the minority Tamils (18 per cent) who are dominant Hindus. Massacre of Tamils in Colombo in 1983 forced LTTE to demand for a separate independent state for the Tamils in the north and east of the country. Since then, violence engulfed the State and 2,15,000 people were killed according to the survey conducted by UN and WHO. Now it seems that with effective air power dominance of the Sri Lankan air force, the LTTE lost its offensive capabilities and they are now confined to only 3 administrative districts of the country. Thus, in strategic terms the Sri Lankan army is now controlling the major part of South Western Coast and succeeded in cutting off all major supply links of the LTTE as a result of which the LTTE is now in disarray without any control and command over its future course of action. The Norwegian brokered ceasefire in 2002 failed to satisfy the aspirations of the Tamils, and the subsequent unilateral abandonment of the ceasefire agreement by the Sri Lankan government had nullified the 2002 peace process. Added to this, several countries regarded LTTE as a terrorist organisation cramping her free trade and free transaction of money, arms and weapons. Sensing that the LTTE is gradually losing ground and international support, the Sri Lankan government in 2006 imposed the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) and increased their defence spending by 20 per cent of the national budget. In January 2008, the Sri Lankan government announced the termination of cease fire and made venture to fight LTTE to the finish. During the last 23 years, power equilibrium between the government forces and the LTTE was almost in balance. But this time government has sanctioned a record amount of 1.5 billion dollars to increase the size and might of the security forces. On the one hand, India’s tough stand against the LTTE and on the other her inability to maintain continuous supply of arms and heavy weapons through heavily guarded ocean routes, crippled her offensive capabilities leaving only the option of suicide bombers to inflict damage on the Sri Lankan army. Moreover, majority of the Sinhalese are behind the government supporting the annihilation of the LTTE. Now, as a major power of the region, India is under obligation to safeguard the territorial integrity of a friend and a neighbour. At the same time, India fears that LTTE’s success could encourage separatist movement all over the world. Taking advantage of India’s neutral stand. Sri Lanka activated her demoralized air force, which played an important role in arm’s victory against the LTTE. With the capture of Mulangavil, the second important administrative hub of the LTTE, in Kilinochchi district, their fighting capability, their moral and their determined will to fight is gradually dwindling. Will Prabhakaran face ignominious defeat? President Mahinda Rajapaksa has hinted to extradite Prabhakaran to India if need so arise. Now, what options remain for India to consider? In 1987 India interfered in Sri Lankan tangle and sent troops to facilitate political solution of the Tamil problems. Will India intervene militarily this time? The DMK has threatened to resign from the Parliament if India fails to stop Sri Lankan offensive against the LTTE. The Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi has intimidated to consider withdrawing support from the Central government if it fails to take decisive steps to stop attack on minority Tamils in Sri Lanka. The internal pressure in India is gradually mounting and it will be extremely difficult for the government to remain indecisive for long. As the whole world is closely monitoring the development in Sri Lanka. India can’t support a terrorist organisation like LTTE what ever may be the consequence. Any move on India’s part to assist the LTTE would tarnish her international image and her democratic ethos. Rather India should exert pressure on Sri Lanka for her huge arms procurements from Pakistan, China and Iran. She may ever force Sri Lanka to procure arms only from India. Secondly, India should mount direct pressure on Lankan government to implement the 13th Amendment of the Constitution to guarantee full autonomy to the Tamils in the north and east within a unified Sri Lanka before they advance any further towards Kilinochchi India should take note of the fact that with the fall of Kilinochchi and subsequent surrender of the LTTE warriors, the geopolitics of the island nation would take a drastic change. As Sri Lanka is situated on major ocean route serving India, her collusion with China or Pakistan and granting them a naval base may even jeopardise India’s long term security in the Indian Ocean. India should act immediately to finalise and officially circulate the political proposals that were to be implemented after the Sri Lanka Government takes control of LTTE occupied territories. Fourthly, India should make things clear about the future of 1,68,000 Sri Lankan refugees living in 125 camps in Tamil Nadu and Orissa. Lastly India should immediately seek Sri Lanka’s clarification on all points and also on the future of the surrendered LTTE outfits. (The writer teaches Geography in Jagiroad College) source: assam tribune

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